EJay’s Weekly Pool – Week Three

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Week 3 games, form going in, and what actually matters on the day.

NYU at Stevens

Violets have been the surprise attack in the metro: 3-1 Hunter, 6-0 Wilkes, 5-1 Misericordia, 5-0 Maritime, then a 0-0 with Kean where they outshot them 33-5 and had a late goal waved off. That’s a hot start with one unfinished night. Stevens is 2-0 at home in the last two (2-0 Skidmore, 2-0 WPI) and midweek at Springfield before NYU shows up in Hoboken. Last year Stevens won 3-2 in Newark. This one is tight, technical, and will be decided on whether NYU’s front four can finish the chances they’ve been creating. Stevens at DeBaun is not a place you sleepwalk.

SC Prediction: Stevens 2-1

Bates at Babson

Bobcats opened NESCAC with a 2-3 loss at Williams and were even at Hamilton. Husson at home Tuesday is the reset. Babson already has the résumé piece: 2-1 Keene State, 3-2 Ramapo, and a 2-1 at No. 18 Brandeis. That’s why they’re in the SimpleCoach 25. Hartwell-Rogers on Saturday is a style clash — Bates will try to make it a NESCAC grind; Babson will try to play through the middle and force Bates to defend for 90. If Babson’s Brandeis result was real, they should be favored. If Bates parks and counters, it gets awkward.

SC Prediction: Babson 2-0

Scranton at Cortland

Best game on this list. Royals: 1-0 Messiah, 3-0 Muhlenberg, 0-0 at Kean. Organized, stingy, Landmark-tough. Red Dragons: 3-0 Rochester, 2-0 St. Joe’s LI, 1-0 Clarkson (Hutter in the 60th), then Vassar on the road. Jordan Ott has been a wall. Saturday on Holloway is the first “are we both this good?” test of the year. Scranton midweek at Rowan is a landmine before the bus ride north. Cortland midweek vs St. Lawrence is the tune-up. One goal either way decides a lot of Week 3 ballots.

SC Prediction: Cortland 1-0  Home field advantage

Washington (MD) at McDaniel

Centennial opener. Shoremen started 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, then 2-0 at Hood. Three draws to open tells you they’re competitive and a little short in the box. McDaniel is 2-1 Albright? Wait — 2-1 Penn State Harrisburg, 3-0 Albright, 6-2 Altoona, 0-0 Methodist. Home, scoring, and ready for conference. Westminster in September is a physical Saturday. Washington has to score first or this becomes a Green Terror possession game they don’t want.

SC Prediction: McDaniel 2-1

Gustavus at Saint John’s (MN)

Johnnies are the 25th team in the poll for a reason: 6-0, early NCAA numbers sitting at 5.40 GPG and 0.00 GAA. That’s not a typo. Gustavus is 0-2 in the results that count (1-3 at Chicago, 1-3 vs Luther at home) with Lake Forest midweek before Collegeville. Gusties can play; they just haven’t closed. At home, St. John’s should control territory. If Gustavus keeps it 0-0 into the last 20, the Johnnies’ attack gets impatient. A Gustie road point would be the upset of the week.

SC Prediction: St. Johns 3-1

Caltech at Redlands

SCIAC opener at Farquhar. Beavers have been better than the brand: 9-0 Bethesda, 3-0 George Fox, 0-3 UCSC, 2-1 Elmhurst. Redlands just beat Emory 1-0 and dropped a 2-1 to Colorado College. That Emory result is still the loudest West Coast win of September. Series history is a massacre for Redlands, but Caltech finally won one last year. If the Bulldogs treat this like a bye after Emory, Caltech will make it ugly. If Redlands presses for 70 minutes, it should look like a ranked-adjacent home win.

SC Prediction: Redlands 2-0

Mary Washington at Washington & Lee

Virginia road test. Eagles beat W&L 2-1 on Sept. 7, then took a 3-2 loss to Washington College. Lynchburg is midweek at Fredericksburg before they go to Lexington. Generals opened 0-1 to Lynchburg, then 1-0 Covenant and 3-2 Maryville on the mountain. Watt Field on Saturday is a revenge spot for W&L and a “prove the first meeting wasn’t a fluke” spot for UMW. Don’t be shocked if it’s 1-0 either way. Legs after midweek will matter.

SC Prediction: 1-1 Draw

Wesleyan at Bowdoin

NESCAC heavyweight Saturday. Cardinals are 3-0: 3-2 Springfield, 2-0 over then-No. 1 Tufts, 5-2 Swarthmore. That’s the best three-game stretch in New England. Midweek at Brandeis before the trip to Brunswick. Polar Bears drew Amherst 1-1 and host Southern Maine Tuesday. Bowdoin at home is always organized and always a problem if you give them set pieces. Wesleyan has looked like a top-10 side. If they travel and play like they did against Tufts, they leave Maine with three points. If Bowdoin slows it, we get a 1-1 that helps nobody’s poll case.

SC Prediction: Wesleyan 2-1

Salisbury at Lynchburg

Sea Gulls: 1-1 at Washington College, 3-0 EMU, then 4-0 Messiah and a 2-1 over Baruch. That’s a statement week. Rutgers-Camden midweek, Roanoke Saturday, Lynchburg Sunday — that’s a brutal Virginia weekend. Hornets sat 4-1 and put nine on Regent. Home ODAC side that already beat W&L. Sunday in Lynchburg is the measuring-stick game for both C2C/ODAC résumés. Salisbury’s midfield has to survive the first 25 minutes or this gets away from them.

SC Prediction: Lynchburg 2-1

WestConn at Montclair State

Red Hawks have been putting up video-game scores at home (6-0 Brooklyn, 7-0 Hunter) and have Swarthmore on the road Wednesday before WestConn on Sunday night. That’s a real midweek. Colonials are building through the LEC slate (Plymouth State Saturday, then the bus to Montclair). Montclair should be favored on quality and depth. WestConn’s path is stay organized, steal a set piece, and make it a one-goal game into the last 15. If Montclair’s front line is even average after Swarthmore, this is a home win that looks routine on Monday.

SC Prediction: Montclair 3-0

If you’re only watching two: Scranton at Cortland, and Wesleyan at Bowdoin.

Sleeper: Gustavus at St. John’s if the Johnnies are flat.

Trap: Caltech at Redlands, and Bates at Babson if Babson looks past it to Tufts next week.