EJay’s Weekly Pool – Week Eight – The Hive Speaks
Apologies to you Hive-addicts out there. No video edition this week.
Trinity (Texas) at Sewanee — Trinity 2–0
The Hive has Trinity as the slight favorite (47.1% to 35.3%) and likes a 2–1 more than anything else. Your shutout is a little cleaner than that. The Tigers have owned this series for decades, including a 2–1 win in Sewanee last year, and they’ve been locking teams down lately. Sewanee is 11–2–2 and just edged Centre 1–0, so they’re no pushover, but Trinity’s control and defensive form make a 2–0 feel plausible.
Bowdoin at Connecticut College — Conn College 2–1
This one lines up almost perfectly with the Hive. Camels are a heavy 70.6% favorite, and the most common score was exactly 2–1. Last year’s NCAA meeting went to penalties after a 0–0, but Conn is in better attacking form right now (they just put five past someone) and it’s Senior Day at home. Bowdoin’s coach just became the program’s all-time wins leader, so there’s some narrative juice, but the home edge looks real.
Tufts at Williams — Williams 2–1
The Hive is more cautious here: Williams only 44.1%, draw 35.3%, and the most popular line was 1–1. You’re going with the home side in a narrow win. Defending champs Tufts have been a little more up-and-down this year (they dropped one to Middlebury), while Williams has been steady and tough in Williamstown. These NESCAC games are usually physical; a 2–1 is a bit more decisive than the Hive’s favorite draw, but the home lean isn’t crazy.
Ithaca at Clarkson — 1–1 draw
You’re swimming against the Hive on this one. They have Ithaca at 47.1% and like a 2–1 for the Bombers. The series has been dead even since Ithaca joined the Liberty League (they played 0–0 last year), and both teams have shown they can grind. Ithaca started hot and cooled off; Clarkson has some scoring with Bodie Smith and just played a late 1–1 with Skidmore. Tight and low-scoring has been the pattern, so the draw is a reasonable counter-lean.
Scranton at Catholic — 1–1 draw
The Hive is basically split down the middle (roughly 32–35–32) and the two most common scores were 1–0 and 1–1. Your pick sits right in the middle of that. Scranton has been rolling (they put up a 7–0 recently and look strong in the Landmark), while Catholic just scored six and has been solid at home. Two organized, stingy sides that know each other well — a 1–1 feels like the kind of game this matchup produces.
Rowan at Rutgers-Newark — Rowan 2–0
No Hive numbers on this one. Rowan has been one of the better teams regionally all year and controls games with structure. Rutgers-Newark is competitive in the NJAC (they just grabbed a late draw with Ramapo), but this version of Rowan is a different level. A professional 2–0 road win fits what they’ve been doing.
Ramapo at TCNJ — TCNJ 2–1
The Hive is all over the Lions (64.7%) and prefers a clean 2–0. You’re with them on the winner but giving Ramapo a goal. TCNJ has been historically good to start the year, stingy at the back, and it’s Senior Day at home (they just beat someone 3–2). Ramapo has some punch with Dino Radoncic, but they’ve been less consistent against the better NJAC sides. 2–1 is a little more open than the Hive’s shutout, but the lean is the same.
Franklin & Marshall at Haverford — Haverford 1–0
Hive is heavily on the Fords (70.6%) and likes 2–0. You’re with the winner, just tighter. Haverford has been excellent defensively and extended long unbeaten runs; last year’s meeting finished 0–0. F&M can make life difficult in the Centennial, but the home form and clean-sheet ability point the same direction. A 1–0 is more conservative than the crowd’s 2–0.
Grinnell at Illinois College — Grinnell 2–1
This matches the Hive almost exactly. They have Grinnell as the lean (41.2%) and the most common score was 2–1. Grinnell has had a strong Midwest Conference season (double-digit wins, recent 5–0) and travels well. Illinois College is competitive at home, but the Pioneers’ current form supports the narrow road win.
La Verne at Chapman — Chapman 2–1
The Hive is razor-close: Chapman 47.1%, La Verne 44.1%, and almost no one is on the draw. The most common scores were 1–0 La Verne or 2–1 Chapman. You’re taking the slight home favorite in a game that feels open. Both sit in the middle of the regional picture in the SCIAC, so a narrow home win is reasonable in a near-coin-flip matchup.
Emory at WashU — WashU 2–1
Hive leans the Bears (47.1%) and the most common score was 2–1. You’re right there with them. Emory has been excellent (long win streak, just beat NYU 1–0, strong ranking), but WashU is a perennial power with a tough home environment. Both programs regularly produce high-level soccer and NCAA teams. The home lean makes sense.