EJay’s Weekly Pool – Week Eight
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Trinity (Texas) at Sewanee – Friday
SC Prediction: Trinity 2–0 Sewanee
Pick: Trinity to win
Trinity 6–2–5
Sewanee 11–2–2
Trinity looks like the stronger side on paper, with a season that includes wins over Mary Hardin-Baylor, Hardin-Simmons, and Centre. The Tigers have shown they can score in bunches, including a 7–0 win over Concordia Texas, but their draws against Southwestern and Berry show that they can be slowed down.
Sewanee should not be taken lightly at home. The team has the chance to make this uncomfortable by keeping its defensive shape, winning the second ball, and forcing Trinity to build attacks patiently. Trinity’s biggest advantage is its ability to turn a small opening into a scoring chance, especially if Sewanee’s back line gets stretched. The home side needs to avoid giving away early goals, because chasing the game would play into Trinity’s hands. I expect Trinity to control more of the ball and create the better chances, even if Sewanee keeps the score close for a while.
What to watch: Whether Sewanee can hold firm through the opening 30 minutes. If it can, the pressure may shift onto Trinity.
Bowdoin at Connecticut College
SC Prediction: Connecticut College 2–1 Bowdoin
Pick: Connecticut College to win
Bowdoin 7–2–4
Conn. College 9–2–2
This is a difficult NESCAC matchup because both teams have shown they can compete against strong opponents. Connecticut College entered the October 13 poll at No. 15 with a 6–2–2 record, while Bowdoin had already beaten ranked Wesleyan and Williams earlier in the season.
Bowdoin’s strength is its ability to stay in games against quality opposition. Its 1–0 win over Williams showed that it can defend well and make a single goal count. Connecticut College, though, has a strong case at home and will want to use its attacking movement to make Bowdoin’s defenders turn and chase. The Camels cannot afford to mistake possession for progress; they need to get the ball into dangerous areas rather than settle for shots from distance. Bowdoin will look to keep the game tight and punish any mistakes in midfield. I give the home side a narrow edge, but this feels like a game that could turn on one poor clearance or one well-taken chance.
What to watch: The battle for space in front of Bowdoin’s defense. If Connecticut College can receive the ball facing goal, its chances improve.
Projected score: Connecticut College 2, Bowdoin 1.
Tufts at Williams
SC Prediction: Williams 2–1 Tufts
Pick: Williams to win narrowly
Tufts 7–2–3
Williams 9–1–2
Williams has the stronger recent national standing, sitting seventh in the October 13 poll with a 9–1–1 record, while Tufts was 23rd at 6–2–3. Those records give Williams a real edge, but Tufts is still a team capable of making a ranked opponent work for every chance.
Williams has shown it can win tight games, including its 1–0 victory over Bowdoin, and it has also found goals when matches open up. Tufts has enough quality to make this a real contest, so Williams cannot afford to give away easy chances or let the visitors settle into a rhythm. The key for Tufts is to keep the middle of the field crowded and prevent Williams from playing forward quickly. Williams, meanwhile, needs to move the ball from side to side and draw Tufts out of its defensive shape. The home crowd and Williams’ stronger record tilt my prediction toward the Ephs, but I would not expect an easy afternoon.
What to watch: The first goal. Williams will have more freedom to attack if Tufts has to chase the game.
Projected score: Williams 2, Tufts 1.
Ithaca at Clarkson
SC Prediction: Clarkson 1–1 Ithaca
Pick: Draw
Ithaca 8–1–7
Clarkson 6–3–3
This looks like a game where the small details could matter more than overall possession. Ithaca opened its season with wins over Elmira and SUNY Geneseo, then drew 2–2 with TCNJ, showing that it can create chances but can also be drawn into an open game. Clarkson’s early results included wins over Oswego State and Plattsburgh, alongside draws with RIT and Hamilton.
Ithaca’s best route is to move the ball quickly and make Clarkson defend across the full width of the field. If the Bombers can get runners beyond the midfield line, they could create problems for the home defense. Clarkson will want to keep its shape and use its home field to make the match physical without giving away needless fouls near the box. Both teams have shown enough defensive strength to make a high-scoring result less appealing as a prediction. The concern for Ithaca is that a long trip and a disciplined home opponent could make it hard to build steady pressure. Clarkson has a chance to win, but I see the sides canceling each other out.
What to watch: Set pieces and second balls. In a close game, a corner or a loose ball in the box may be the best chance either side gets.
Scranton at Catholic
SC Prediction: Catholic 1–1 Scranton
Pick: Draw
Scranton 10–1–3
Catholic 9–1–4
This is one of the strongest matchups on the list. Catholic was ranked No. 10 with a 9–0–3 record in the October 13 poll, while Scranton sat at No. 16 with an 8–1–3 record. Both teams have built their seasons on consistent results, so neither should expect the other to fold under pressure.
Catholic’s home field is an advantage, and its results show a team that can win in different ways. It has earned several narrow victories and has also shown the ability to score multiple goals when the match opens up. Scranton has the record to suggest it can match that level, and its best chance is to stay compact and make Catholic work for clean looks at goal. Catholic will want to press early, but it must be careful not to leave space behind its midfield. I expect both sides to have spells of control, with neither willing to take too many risks late in the game. The quality is close enough that a draw makes sense.
What to watch: How much space either team allows between midfield and defense. That area could decide who gets the best scoring chances.
Ramapo at The College of New Jersey (TCNJ)
SC Prediction: TCNJ 2–1 Ramapo
Pick: TCNJ to win
Ramapo 8–4–2
TCNJ 6–0–8
TCNJ has shown that it can be difficult to beat, even when it does not dominate the match. Its season has included a 2–2 draw with Ithaca, a 1–1 draw with Rowan, and a 0–0 draw with Rutgers-Newark. That pattern points to a team that can keep games close, though it also needs to turn more of those draws into wins.
Ramapo faces a difficult task after a 4–0 loss to Montclair State on October 17. That result does not tell the whole story, but it raises questions about how well the Roadrunners will handle TCNJ’s pressure. Ramapo needs to protect the middle of the field and avoid allowing TCNJ to build attacks through simple passes. TCNJ should look to make use of its home advantage and force Ramapo’s defenders to deal with repeated runs into the box. The Lions have not always been a high-scoring side, so they cannot waste the few clear chances they create. I expect a close game, with TCNJ finding a way to edge it.
What to watch: Ramapo’s response after losing possession. If the Roadrunners can recover quickly and prevent TCNJ from attacking in transition, they have a chance to make this a one-goal game.
Franklin & Marshall at Haverford
SC Prediction: Haverford 1–0 Franklin & Marshall
Pick: Haverford to win narrowly
Haverford 11–3–1
F&M 4-6-2
Haverford has had a mixed run against strong opponents, but its recent results offer reasons for confidence. The Fords beat McDaniel 1–0 on October 17, and earlier wins over Washington College and Penn State Harrisburg showed they can protect a lead. They have also suffered losses to Johns Hopkins, Ursinus, and Dickinson, so this is not a team that can afford to relax.
Franklin & Marshall will look to make this a physical, close contest and limit the home side’s chances in the box. Haverford’s advantage is that it knows how to win a tight game without needing to score several goals. The Fords need to make their set pieces count and avoid giving the Diplomats easy chances from turnovers. Franklin & Marshall can put pressure on the home defense if it gets the ball forward quickly, but it must also guard against counterattacks. With Haverford at home and coming off a shutout win, I lean toward the Fords in a low-scoring match.
What to watch: The first goal may be enough to decide it. If Haverford scores first, it has shown the ability to defend a narrow lead.
Grinnell at Illinois College
SC Prediction: Grinnell 2–1 Illinois College
Pick: Grinnell to win
Grinnell 11–3–1
Illinois College 7–2–4
Grinnell has shown a good mix of attacking power and defensive strength this season. Wins over Coe, Hamline, Monmouth, and Beloit show that it can score several goals, while 1–0 victories over Wisconsin–River Falls and Lake Forest suggest it can also grind out results. The recent 5–0 win over Lawrence was encouraging, though the 3–0 loss to Gustavus Adolphus the next day showed that the team can struggle against a strong opponent.
Illinois College has home field on its side and will want to take advantage of that by making Grinnell defend early. The home team should look to play directly when the chance is there rather than allow Grinnell to settle into its passing game. Grinnell’s main strength is its ability to create chances from different areas, so Illinois College will need to stay alert on both wings and through the middle. The visitors also need to be careful not to overcommit after their recent high-scoring win. I favor Grinnell because it has shown more ways to win, but playing away from home makes a comfortable victory less likely.
What to watch: Whether Illinois College can keep Grinnell from scoring early. An early goal would force the home team to take more risks.
La Verne at Chapman
SC Prediction: Chapman 2–1 La Verne
Pick: Chapman to win narrowly
La Verne 6–4–4
Chapman 5–4–3
This Southern California matchup could be more competitive than the national rankings alone might suggest. La Verne will want to make use of its pace and try to attack before Chapman can get its defense set. Chapman, playing at home, should look to control the middle of the field and make La Verne defend for long stretches. The key for the Panthers is to avoid turning the game into a series of open exchanges, because that would give the visitors more chances to use their speed.
La Verne’s best path is to stay organized, keep the score level, and make Chapman impatient. If the Leopards can win the midfield battle and get runners into the box, they have a chance to take points away. Chapman should have the edge if it can use the ball well and avoid giving up easy counterattacks.
What to watch: The transition from defense to attack. The team that handles those moments better may get the clearest chances.
Emory at WashU
SC Prediction: WashU 2–1 Emory
Pick: WashU to win narrowly
WashU 9-2-2
Emory 11-1-2
This is a matchup where WashU’s home advantage could matter, but Emory is capable of making the Bears work. WashU’s early schedule included a 5–0 win over Millikin, a 3–2 win at Elmhurst, and a 2–1 win over Hanover. Those results show that the Bears can score, although the narrow wins also suggest they have to stay sharp at the back.
Emory will want to slow the pace and make WashU work for every opening. If the Eagles can keep the ball and move WashU’s defense from side to side, they may find room to attack. WashU’s best route is to press at the right moments and use quick forward passes when Emory loses possession. The Bears should avoid giving Emory easy chances through the middle, especially if the game is still level late in the second half. I give WashU a small edge because of its home field and its ability to find goals, but I expect Emory to stay in the match until the final stages.
What to watch: How WashU handles Emory’s possession. If the Bears can win the ball and attack quickly, they could create the best chances of the game.
My final picks
| Matchup | Predicted winner | Score |
| Trinity (Texas) at Sewanee | Trinity | 2–0 |
| Bowdoin at Connecticut College | Connecticut College | 2–1 |
| Tufts at Williams | Williams | 2–1 |
| Ithaca at Clarkson | Draw | 1–1 |
| Scranton at Catholic | Draw | 1–1 |
| Rowan at Rutgers-Newark | Rowan | 2–0 |
| Ramapo at TCNJ | TCNJ | 2–1 |
| Franklin & Marshall at Haverford | Haverford | 1–0 |
| Grinnell at Illinois College | Grinnell | 2–1 |
| La Verne at Chapman | Chapman | 2–1 |
| Emory at WashU | WashU | 2–1 |
My strongest picks: Rowan, Trinity, and Williams. Their current-season results and national standing give them a stronger basis than some of the closer matchups.
My caution picks: Ithaca–Clarkson and Scranton–Catholic. Both look like games where a draw is a realistic outcome, and I would be careful about treating either as a safe win for one side.