EJay’s Weekly Pool – Week Seven – The Hive Returns

Here is the latest from the Hive about Week Seven Games.

Calvin @ Hope

SC Score: Calvin 2–1 Hope

Fans: Calvin 25 (78.1%) | Draw 3 (9.4%) | Hope 4 (12.5%)

Most common: Calvin 2–1 Hope (12)

Calvin (10-1-1, USC #14) just dropped an 8-0 on Alma and has been scoring at a high clip all year. Nine-game winning streak, multiple shutouts, and a 2-0 start in the MIAA. Hope (7-1-3) has Seth Walters and can compete, but the two conference draws show a team still grinding rather than dominating. Strongest consensus on the board and full alignment with the SC score. The room sees the Flying Dutch’s attacking depth as the difference in the rivalry.

York (PA) @ Stevenson

SC Score: Stevenson 2–1 York

Fans: York 15 (46.9%) | Draw 8 (25.0%) | Stevenson 9 (28.1%)

Most common: York 2–1 Stevenson (6)

York has been uneven lately with losses to Neumann and Eastern and sits more middle-of-the-pack in the MAC Freedom. Stevenson just put up a 4-2 road win at Alvernia and has looked more consistent at home. This is the clearest SC vs. fan split on the slate. Fans lean York (and the most common scoreline is York winning 2–1), while the SC score gave the edge to the Mustangs at home. One of the more open games.

WashU @ Carnegie Mellon

SC Score: CMU 2–1 WashU

Fans: WashU 5 (15.6%) | Draw 3 (9.4%) | CMU 24 (75.0%)

Most common: WashU 1–2 CMU (14)

WashU (8-2-2) just got blanked 2-0 at home by Case. CMU (8-2-2) went on the road and beat Chicago 4-1. Strong agreement between the SC score and the fans. Recent UAA results have moved the room firmly toward the Tartans at home. The most common scoreline (WashU 1–2 CMU) is right in line with the SC call.

Chicago @ Case Western

SC Score: Case 2–0 Chicago

Fans: Chicago 8 (25.0%) | Draw 7 (21.9%) | CWRU 17 (53.1%)

Most common: Chicago 1–2 CWRU (8)

Chicago (#3) just lost 1-4 to CMU. Case (#7, 9-0-2) is still undefeated and just shut out WashU. Lean Case from both sides, though not a runaway. Fans are a bit more cautious than the SC 2-0 (most common is 1–2), which makes sense given Chicago’s early ranking strength even after the recent result. Defense has been the separator for Case so far.

Ohio Northern @ Otterbein

SC Score: Ohio Northern 3–1 Otterbein

Fans: ONU 16 (50.0%) | Draw 5 (15.6%) | Otterbein 11 (34.4%)

Most common: ONU 2–1 Otterbein (9)

ONU (8-3-3, 3-0 OAC) just shut out Baldwin Wallace 1-0 and has been the more consistent side in conference play. Otterbein has been solid but hasn’t matched that form yet. Slight edge to the Polar Bears from both the SC score and the fans. The most common scoreline (2–1) is a little tighter than the SC 3–1, which fits a conference game where both sides can make it difficult.

Eau Claire @ Whitewater

SC Score: Whitewater 1–0 Eau Claire

Fans: Eau Claire 14 (43.8%) | Draw 8 (25.0%) | Whitewater 10 (31.2%)

Most common: Eau Claire 2–1 Whitewater (7)

Whitewater has the better overall record and stronger home presence. Eau Claire has been streaky, including a recent loss to La Crosse. Second clear SC vs. fan difference. Fans lean Eau Claire (and the most common scoreline has them winning 2–1), while the SC score gave the home edge to Whitewater. WIAC game that looks competitive on the numbers.

St. Olaf @ Macalester

SC Score: St. Olaf 2–1 Macalester

Fans: Olaf 31 (96.9%) | Draw 0 (0.0%) | Macalester 1 (3.1%)

Most common: Olaf 2–0 Macalester (11)

St. Olaf is still the clear #1 (12-0-1, 5-0 MIAC). Dominant start, multiple shutouts, low goals-against, and they just beat St. Scholastica 4-1 after trailing early. Macalester has history (beat the Oles in last year’s MIAC final) but hasn’t matched that level this year. Near-unanimous consensus and the biggest agreement on the slate. Fans are even slightly more decisive than the SC score (most common is 2–0). The form gap is the story.

W&L @ Lynchburg

SC Score: Lynchburg 1–0 W&L

Fans: W&L 7 (21.9%) | Draw 4 (12.5%) | Lynchburg 21 (65.6%)

Most common: W&L 1–2 Lynchburg (12)

Both highly ranked (W&L #6, Lynchburg #8). Lynchburg already beat W&L 1-0 in the season opener and has continued to win. Strong home lean for Lynchburg from both sides. The most common scoreline (W&L 1–2 Lynchburg) is a bit higher-scoring than the SC 1–0, but the direction is the same. ODAC rematch between two clear contenders with home advantage mattering.

SUNY Oneonta @ Buffalo State

SC Score: Oneonta 1–1 Buffalo State

Fans: Oneonta 24 (75.0%) | Draw 6 (18.8%) | Buffalo State 2 (6.2%)

Most common: Oneonta 2–0 Buffalo State (9)

Oneonta is 9-0-2 and rolling (recent 3-1 over Fredonia). One of the cleaner unbeaten stories. Buffalo State is solid but facing a tougher test. Fans are more bullish on Oneonta than the SC 1–1. The room sees the unbeaten Red Dragons as the clearer side on the road; most common scoreline is a 2–0. Unbeaten stretches tend to get the benefit of the doubt.

Roger Williams @ Suffolk

SC Score: Roger Williams 2–0 Suffolk

Fans: RWU 17 (53.1%) | Draw 9 (28.1%) | Suffolk 6 (18.8%)

Most common: Roger Williams 1–1 Suffolk (7)

RWU has been receiving votes and has the stronger historical edge in this CNE matchup. Suffolk is capable (recent 2-1 over Western New England) but hasn’t matched the Hawks’ consistency. Lean RWU from both sides, with a decent draw contingent in the fan voting. Most common scoreline is a 1–1, which is tighter than the SC 2–0. Not a runaway either way.

Consensus Notes

Strongest agreements: St. Olaf (near-unanimous), Calvin, Oneonta, and CMU. In each of those the SC score and the fan lean point the same direction, and the most common scorelines are close to the SC calls.

Clearest differences: York/Stevenson and Eau Claire/Whitewater. Those are the two games where the fan plurality and the SC score diverge. Both look more open on the numbers than the rest of the slate.

Scoreline tendencies: Fans are generally a little tighter than the SC scores in the closer games (Case, ONU, Lynchburg, RWU). The biggest outliers in the other direction are Oneonta (fans more decisive) and St. Olaf (fans even stronger).

UAA and MIAA still feel like the highest-stakes spots for the national conversation. St. Olaf and Case stand out as the cleanest national profiles. Calvin, Lynchburg, and W&L are all in strong positions in their conferences. Chicago and WashU have taken recent hits in UAA play. The MIAA (Calvin/Hope) and ODAC (W&L/Lynchburg) games look like the clearest form-vs-form tests.