EJay’s Weekly Pool – Week Six – The Hive Returns with a Vengeance

Italicized text are my comments when the games were announced. Before the Hive chimed in….

United Soccer Coaches poll of Oct. 6 is the backdrop: Middlebury 2, Case Western 7, Williams 11, Tufts 15, Kenyon 25. St. Olaf is still No. 1 at 11–0 and is not on this card.

Middlebury at Tufts.

The only top-15 meeting on the slate, and the fans will not hand Middlebury the road win. No. 2 Middlebury is 7–0–2. No. 15 Tufts is 6–1–3. The split is draw 14 (45%), Middlebury 11 (35%), Tufts 6 (19%), with 1–1 the mode at 11 ballots. That is a Medford vote. The Panthers have been stingy, including a 0–0 with Colby last weekend, and Tufts is the defending national champion playing at home. The fans are saying the ranking gap does not survive Bello Field. For the pod: if this is 1–1, nobody should act surprised. The room already priced the draw.

No. 2 Middlebury comes in as the stingiest side in the NESCAC, still essentially unblemished after a 0-0 with Colby on October 3 and a 3-1 win over RPI. The Panthers were 5-0-1 in the last national poll and have been winning league games 3-0 and 1-0. No. 18 Tufts is the home threat: the Jumbos knocked off then-No. 5 Babson 2-1 on September 28 and sit 4-1-2 in that poll, with a weekend at Amherst and Hamilton before this. Medford is Middlebury’s hardest road test of the year, and both defenses travel. Expect a tight, low-event NESCAC game.

SC score: Middlebury 2, Tufts 1.

Wheaton (Mass.) at Williams.

The clearest call on the board. Williams 26 of 31 (84%), Wheaton one ballot, draw four. Mode is 1–2. Williams is No. 11 at 8–1–1 and has been collecting NESCAC points. Wheaton opened the year as a preseason top-10 team and is not in the poll now. This is the fans burying a preseason name. The 1–2 is the tell: they expect Williams to win, not to run away. One goal, not a statement.

No. 19 Wheaton (Mass.) was 5-1-3 in the last poll and has been unbeaten in 32 of its last 34 entering late September, though the Lyons tied Emerson 2-2 on October 3 and lost 1-0 at Clark. Williams is receiving votes and just went to 8-1-1 (5-1-1 NESCAC) with a 3-1 senior-day comeback over Keene State, outshooting the Owls 37-9. Lorcan Mitchell has four game-winners. Cole Field plus that shot volume is a real edge for the Ephs.

SC score: Williams 2, Wheaton 1.

Case Western at Washington University.

The coin flip, and the most interesting one. Dead even at 12–12, seven draws. Mode is still 1–2, nine times, which quietly leans WashU. No. 7 Case is 8–0–2. WashU is 8–1–2 after a 7–2 midweek at Webster and a 3–2 UAA win at Brandeis, and they get Case at 10 a.m. at Francis Olympic Field. The fans will not pick against an unbeaten top-10 side outright, but the scoreline says home field. If you need one game where the percentages and the scoreline disagree, this is it. Read the 1–2, not the 38–38.

No. 4 Case Western is 8-0-2 after a 0-0 at Rochester, its fourth straight shutout, and has not lost. WashU is the home side and just beat Brandeis 3-2 and Greenville 3-2, so the Bears can score, but they are outside the national poll and this is CWRU’s UAA opener on the road. The Spartans’ defensive run is the separator.

SC score: CWRU 2, WashU 0.

File this under “the shutout streak ends in St. Louis,” because I assumed four clean sheets travel to a 10 a.m. kick on Francis Olympic Field. I always treat an unbeaten record like armor.

Kenyon at Wabash.

 The other landslide. Kenyon 27 of 31 (87%), Wabash one ballot. Mode 2–1. Kenyon just jumped back into the poll at No. 25 after a 3–0 over DePauw on alumni weekend and a 6–0 over Wittenberg. Wabash was the early NCAC pacesetter and has only one loss, but Crawfordsville does not scare this room. The 2–1 matters. They are not calling a Kenyon procession. They are calling the better team, on the road, by a goal. That is a respect vote for Wabash’s home ground and a ranking vote for Kenyon’s last ten days.

Wabash has the best overall record in the early NCAC picture at 8-1-1 and only one loss all fall. Kenyon was 5-2-0 and fifth in the Region VII poll, with a 4-0 win at Adrian and a 0-3 loss at No. 3 Case Western still on the sheet. This is the circled NCAC game of the weekend: Kenyon’s attack against a Little Giants side that has barely slipped. Home field and the record lean Wabash.

SC score: Wabash 2, Kenyon 1.

Stevens at Lebanon Valley.

Lean, not a lock. LVC 17 (55%), draw 9 (29%), Stevens 5. Mode 1–2. The Dutchmen are 8–2–1 and just beat Dickinson 2–1 at home. Stevens dropped a 1–0 at Marywood on Wednesday. Annville has been a results factory, and the fans are buying the home side without buying a blowout. Nine draws is the hedge. If Stevens steals a point, that 29% will look smarter than the headline.

Stevens was the unanimous preseason pick in the MAC Freedom after five straight titles, including a 1-0 championship win over Lebanon Valley last year, and is receiving national votes. The Ducks are 5-1-2 after a 1-1 conference-opening draw with King’s (16-11 in shots). LVC, the preseason No. 2, is 7-2-1 and opened league play with a 2-1 win over Misericordia. Rematch of last year’s final, on the Dutchmen’s field.

SC score: Stevens 2, Lebanon Valley 1.

Which is exactly why Lebanon Valley takes the rematch, because I handed Stevens last year’s 1-0 and the preseason poll instead of the team that is 7-2-1 at home. I always give the Ducks the trophy before kickoff.

Rutgers-Newark at TCNJ.

Homecoming in Ewing, and the fans are almost shrugging. TCNJ 15 (48%), draw 13 (42%), Rutgers-Newark 3. Mode 1–1. TCNJ is 5–0–6, unbeaten in 11, and just ground out a 0–0 at Montclair State in a game they were outshot 17–3. Rutgers-Newark beat Stockton 3–0 on Wednesday. The room likes the Lions at home and does not trust them to finish. That is the whole TCNJ season in one ballot: hard to beat, harder to separate from. For the pod, this is the “someone has to score” game. Eight people already said 1–1.

TCNJ just beat Kean 4-1, tied No. 3 Rowan 1-1 at home, and blanked Neumann 3-0. Rutgers-Newark opened NJAC play with a 6-1 win at William Paterson behind a Vieira hat trick (Amadou with two goals and two assists), then lost 4-2 to Montclair State and sits around 4-2-3. Ewing on Homecoming, against a Lions side that just held Rowan, is a step up.

SC score: TCNJ 3, Rutgers-Newark 1.

So bookmark the Scarlet Raiders, because I treated a 1-1 with Rowan like a fortress and ignored a side that just put six on William Paterson. I always overrate Homecoming.

Emerson at Coast Guard.

Mild home lean. Coast Guard 16 (52%), Emerson 12 (39%), only three draws. Mode 1–2, and only six people agreed on it, so the scoreline is soft. This is the opposite of the TCNJ game. The fans expect a winner. They just do not agree who by how many. Coast Guard at home is the slight call. Emerson’s 12 ballots say the NEWMAC road trip is live. Low-confidence lean, not a take.

Coast Guard tied WPI 1-1 on Homecoming and beat Western New England 2-0 behind six saves from Sam Linkous. Emerson just played No. 19 Wheaton (Mass.) to a 2-2 draw in Boston. NEWMAC game on the Thames, and the Bears have been hard to beat at home in tight games.

SC score: Coast Guard 2, Emerson 1.

Expect Emerson instead, because I trusted a home edge built on a WPI tie and a WNE win while the visitors just took a point off Wheaton. I always go with men in dress uniforms.

Neumann at Eastern.

The muddiest card on the list. Neumann 12 (39%), draw 10 (32%), Eastern 9 (29%). The scoreline splits six-and-six between 1–1 and 2–0. Translation: the room has no idea, and a chunk of it thinks Neumann wins by two if the draw does not happen. Do not force a pick here on the pod. Say the fans punted, and the only conviction in the ballot is that it will not be an Eastern runaway.

Neumann is 6-3-1 after a 1-0 win at York, its first-ever MAC Commonwealth match (Darwin Berger in the 44th; Knights outshot York 10-1 in the first half). Eastern is 6-1-3 after a 4-0 win at Penn State Berks and had been 5-1-3 with results against DeSales, Goucher, and Ursinus mixed in. Both are 1-0 in the new league alignment. Home edge to the Eagles.

SC score: Eastern 2, Neumann 1.

Which means Neumann steals it, because I handed Eastern a home edge in a brand-new league alignment where neither side has proved anything. I always default to St. Davids.

Elmhurst @ Millikin.

Another shrug, with a wrinkle. Elmhurst and the draw are tied at 11 (35.5% each), Millikin 9. Mode is still 1–2, six times. So the plurality result is a Millikin win that the head-to-head vote does not actually support. Millikin is 4–3–1 and has been in shootouts all year, 24 goals for and 20 against. CCIW game, no ranking noise, fans treating it like a coin flip that might land 1–2. Fine one to flag as “the scoreline and the winner pick are having an argument.”

Millikin beat Carthage 2-0 and Franklin 6-0, then lost 3-1 at Wheaton (Ill.) in CCIW play. Elmhurst visits Decatur in a conference game with North Park (No. 25 nationally) still ahead for the Big Blue later in the month. Millikin’s home scoring form is the lean.

SC score: Millikin 2, Elmhurst 1.

Go ahead and flip it, because I used a 6-0 over Franklin as evidence and skipped the conference loss at Wheaton. I always fall for Decatur scoring form.

Whitman at Pacific Lutheran.

Second-strongest lean after the two landslides. PLU 21 (68%), Whitman and the draw at 5 each. Mode 1–2, eleven ballots, the same concentration as the Middlebury–Tufts 1–1. These two were tied atop the Northwest Conference a couple of weeks ago. Whitman just handled Willamette 3–2 and blanked George Fox 2–0 at home. PLU had been on a shutout run and gets the Blues in Tacoma. The fans are siding with the home side in a first-place-type game and calling it by a goal. Eleven people on 1–2 is as close as this pool gets to a script.

First place in the Northwest Conference. Both are 7-1-2 overall and 5-0-1 in league play. Whitman shut out George Fox 2-0 on Sunday (20-11 in shots, Nathan Alvarado and Riki Kobayashi). PLU beat Linfield 1-0 on Mike Murega’s 73rd-minute winner, has allowed one goal in NWC play, and carries a 307-minute shutout streak. The Lutes are at home; the Blues have the cleaner shot profile. Coin-flip game.

SC score: Whitman 1, Pacific Lutheran 1.

Somebody wins this, because I called it a coin flip and then still printed a draw, which is just cowardice with a scoreline. I always hide in 1-1 when both teams are 5-0-1.

Three things worth saying out loud. The room trusts home field more than the poll: Tufts, WashU, LVC, TCNJ, Coast Guard, and PLU all get the lean or the scoreline. The only road teams they are willing to hammer are Kenyon and, quietly, Middlebury if the draw does not cash. And nobody is calling a track meet. If you want a line for the open: thirty-one fans looked at week six and decided Division III men’s soccer is still a one-goal sport.