Injured Time* – Weighing In On the Promotion and Relegation Debate

*Injured Time is a where I tackle topics that are not specific to Division III soccer. Mentioned this in Updates and Observations for 1.23.2024.

I don’t find this topic terribly interesting. It is a debate that seems to have at least mirrored other debates we see in our culture today. You are for it. Or you are responsible for the death of X number of clubs over the last 30 years. In other words, the idea that there is nuance in anyone’s thoughts on the matter is out the window.

With that said, let me give it an old University of Mount Union try. Keep in mind, I am not trying to convince anyone that I am right. This is just the way I see things in the #ProRelfortheUS debate.

History of Promotion and Relegation in the United States

I am a history guy. So whenever I tackle the present or future of anything, I start with looking in the past. It’s not to judge, not to admonish, or not to cast dispersions, it’s simply to understand where we have been. As Mater told Lightning McQueen – “I don’t need to know where I’m goin’, I just need to know where I’ve been.” Or something like that.

In case you are not knee deep in soccer and don’t know or understand what promotion and relegation is. Here is Wikipedia’s definition –

… promotion and relegation is a process where teams can move up and down between multiple divisions arranged in a hierarchical structure, based on their performance over a season.

Wikipedia

The alternative to a system with promotion and relegation, also called an “open system”, is a “closed system”. This is where clubs are licensed to investors, much like a franchise model. This is the common structure of American professional sports leagues. As a result, teams in a league, in Major League Soccer for example, is a single entity whereby there is investment into the league, and in return they are granted a franchise. In this manner, the centralization of expense (ie salaries) and the sharing of profit, as shareholders in the single entity, have added a degree of stability to the league never seen before in the history of the United States.*

*I could easily go down the rabbit hole debating whether MLS Clubs are “clubs” or “franchises”, but I will let others get deep into the thick of thin things.

There is no History …

There is no first division professional league in the history of US Soccer (and Canada!) that has ever come remotely close to being an “open system.” Right or wrong, it is never how we have operated at this level… ever. Now, there are instances where there are leagues that do have promotion and relegation. Of course, the Cosmopolitan League is nothing close to a professional league, but it is fantastic and has 90+ years of history to lean on.

You Are With Us, or Against Us

Among current Pro/Rel cognoscenti the assumption is that if you don’t support Pro/Rel as they currently propose, you are against Pro/Rel. Period. So, let me be clear. 

I LOVE PROMOTION AND RELEGATION. 

I know, who would have thought. Truth be told, in an ideal world, that’s what we would have. As a player I’ve been immersed in it when I tried out for two teams; one fighting for promotion and another in a relegation battle. The tension, excitement and anxiety is palpable…

Unfortunately, and like it or soccer in the United States is unique with different challenges and with tradition that is riddled with battles, contradictions and a fundamental streak of independence that make governing all the disparate soccer interests downright impossible.

But alas, here we are. Where seemingly for many, league structures like promotion and relegation or lack there of determines if you support a league. That to me is certainly a sign of progress. 

A sign of progress from the days when many of us became hack journalists to support the league because the real journalists wouldn’t show up to games. When Bigsoccer.com was the place to find live up to date information/rumors and opinion. Or when fans invited journalists to games so that they may experience a game before they at least criticized it. As I have said before, for those of us who spent years with nothing, 1996 was a monumental year. No one cared if your team was a “franchise” or a “club.”

I’ll take it though. For as puerile as it can be, it’s much better than the alternative – the hand ringing, know it all, post-mortem analysis of why soccer can’t succeed in the US … and frankly, if we can have a league that can develop American players (albeit marginally… a topic for another Injured Time*) without Pro/Rel, count me in. 

Bad Investment

Despite the growing success of soccer, and in particular Youth Soccer, as a business professional soccer is a dicey proposition. As advocates for promotion and relegation are quick to remind anyone who listens, the lack of promotion and relegation (and money … that’s next … ) is responsible for the untimely deaths of 162 clubs/franchises, or whatever you want to call them. But a quick review …. well not so quick as it took me a healthy week of my life … of the 160 clubs finds something much different than being murdered.

I am a simple guy, hence the name. So I take things literally. So the first thing I did when I started reading about the murder pyramid was to understand … what murder meant. With that, I found this definition and used this as the baseline. Afterall, its a term they use, not me.

: the crime of unlawfully and unjustifiably killing a person
: something very difficult or dangerous
: something outrageous or blameworthy
: a flock of crows

websters dictionary

Unrelated Reference to 80’s Music

Based on Merriam-Webster then, the Murder Pyramid certainly did not mean “unlawfully and unjustifiably killing a person.” I mean, I get being a polemicist for your raison d’etre, but that is just ridiculous. And despite my enjoyment of both the Flock of Seagulls and the Black Crowes, it’s not what I think they have in mind.

That leaves “something very difficult or dangerous” and “something outrageous and blameworthy.“ Unfortunately, I am not certain that in this context neither of them apply. So is it a murder pyramid? No, unfortunately it’s more like an irrelevant pyramid. So what does the data suggest?

What Causes Clubs to Fail?

First off, there are/were clubs that I will concede were victims of the tough nature of the business of soccer. These I will concede, for arguments sake, were murdered. By my count, there were seven clubs that were victims –

• Colorado Foxes
• Columbus Xoggz 
• Fort Lauderdale Strikers/Miami FC
• Rio Grande Valley FC Toros
• San Diego Loyal
• San Jose Hawks/San Francisco Bay Blackhawks
• Utah Blitzz

Relevance

The sad truth of the matter is that the majority of soccer clubs that have gone out of business have done so because of irrelevance. They are not relevant to the communities where the live and not relevant to the soccer scene they are trying to tap into. Of 162 clubs, 65 of them were irrelevant. So irrelevant that there is little to no information on some of them. 

You can find all the data I collected on these clubs by clicking on the link.

Above is chart of the 162 clubs and the real cause of their demise. I am no data scientist, but think the difference between Irrelevance and every other category…. is pretty significant. And as you can see, “Murder” doesn’t even compare to the death of irrelevance. Now, I am not say this with glee. As a lifelong supporter of the game, I don’t understand how this could possibly happen, but there is a truth that this reveals. And it is painful and a tough pill to swallow.

And that reality is that … what the US is lacking isn’t promotion and relegation … what the US is lacking are soccer fans.

It Takes Money … and Fans

Any time promotion and relegation comes up, two topics come up as well. The first is solidarity payments, and the second are parachute payments. Parachute payments, at least in the context of the English Premier League refers to payments made to teams that are relegated in the amount of half the money a club would receive in the EPL from TV contracts. This is meant to minimize, at least temporarily, the economic shock of being relegated. 

Solidarity payments are payments to clubs when a player is transferred or traded from one team to another. The money is paid to the club that invested and trained the player. In the United States this would likely take place when say a player from FC Delco is signed by the Philadelphia Union. The idea is that the club, FC Delco, spent X number of years developing a player, they should receive compensation for a player turning professional.

Each has merit, but think the notion of solidarity payments make more sense … if we could adapt it to the US. This I think ends up being a component of supporting “growth of the game.” And it incorporates or integrates youth soccer into the broader structure of US Soccer. And more importantly, I think it would be a way for youth clubs to be more ingrained and supporting of their local professional clubs.

How About Starting Small?

And frankly, if promotion and relegation is the goal, I would actually start here. As a reference point, in England, clubs can receive hundreds of thousands of dollars in solidarity payments. This is a non-starter here in the US. The economic stresses in professional soccer are too great without being obligated to pay solidarity payments, that it would be unrealistic to assume they could shoulder the burden. Perhaps MLS could afford it, but for USL teams this would be a stretch.

But what about a starting point of 10% of the contract, or $10,000, whichever is greater. Or come up with a stepped payment depending on the professional level, similar to what England does. The point is not the dollar amount right now, it’s a start. We don’t have a history of doing this so it’s important to start the mechanism to allow for this and have agreement on it across the board. In time, negotiating over a dollar amount can happen, but not unless you clear the first hurdle of actually implementing some system.

Pro/Rel History?

Youth Soccer however, doesn’t need the help. Like it or not, pay to play is why club/academy soccer is the most successful soccer business in the US. Plenty of kids … or should I say parents … who will pay for their son or daughter to play. Which is why, when it comes to promotion and relegation, parachute payments are the lynchpin. Because without them, nothing works.

Dating as far back as 1992, there has been some sort of structure by which first division clubs shared revenue with clubs in the lower division. Starting in 2006, “parachute” payments were introduced which meant for two seasons following relegation a club would receive half of the per club Premier League basic TV money, this would lower the risk of a club going into administration due to the high cost base (mainly player wages) they incurred in the Premier League.* From Wikipedia

In the modern age of the Premier League, these payments have exceeded $300 million in a given year. There is a high cost of doing business for Premier League clubs and relegation is quite the economic shock to a club. The idea is that these payment will give the relegated club 2 years to adjust to being in a lower league. 

Most proponents of Pro/Rel argue that this is something US Soccer needs to do. And that parachute payments will somehow make up for being relegated. And while I appreciate the zeal with which they bring their arguments to bear, I see something totally different. I don’t think these clubs fail because of the structure of soccer, or failing to be like open systems. I subscribe to the notion that the majority of our soccer problems are as a result of one key element. Fans. Or the lack there of.

We Need Fans First

It is a bitter pill to swallow as I want to the game to be bigger than it is. But wishing something to be true and what the reality is are two different things.

For the long term viability of any club there is one metric that matters over all else. And that is attendance. Excluding Major League Soccer, everyone else has to rely on attendance. There is no real sponsorships, no TV money, nothing that is a guaranteed revenue stream that can fill a clubs coffers. It’s about hustling every day to sell tickets. And so when I look at the 162 teams that have folded since 1992, their irrelevance (the lack of paying fans) is a much larger issue than if you have pro/rel. 

Parachute payments and solidarity payments are just side talk. The problem with Flower City Union, the latest club to go on hiatus and look to form as an amateur team wasn’t because it didn’t receive solidarity payments. Nor was it because Rochester had no soccer tradition. It wasn’t even because it lacked a stadium. It had to do with the fact that in spite of everything it had going for it, it only drew on average 600 fans a game.

To provide some context, in 2023, League 2 in England averaged 5,791 fans per game at the same time that our third division champions, Flower City averaged 600 fans. Below is a chart of all professional leagues in England by year. The pink bars is League 2.

Now I am not a gambling man. But I think I would take a bet that if Flower City had an average attendance of 5,791 fans per game, we wouldn’t be talking about them moving to an amateur status/league.

We Really Need Fans

If you actually look at the 65 clubs that are “Irrelevant”, the number one driver for their failure was lack of fans. The reality is the higher up the pyramid, the more fans you need to buy tickets. And I would say that even for Major League Soccer, this remains an important metric, if only because it drives all the other sponsorship revenue. 

This is where I break from Pro/Rel advocates who demand parachute payments and solidarity payments. First off, not sure any of that would save any of these clubs. But secondly, I am not sure we want to be in the business to support clubs where no one is interested. Outside of some X-itter personalities who love the logos and bang the drum for pro/rel.

If you want these things to be a reality, maybe the focus should be on growing the number of fans who like lower level soccer. Then maybe you can make a case for solidarity payments. Parachute payments as a form of sustaining clubs for the sake of keeping them alive? Well, as the adage goes, why spend good money after bad.

You can find all the data I collected on these clubs by clicking on the link. 

SC.