EJay’s Weekly Pool – The Hive and I Come to Terms
Again, some great AI college logos… that are not….
CNU vs. Cortland
Hive: Cortland 17 (77.3%), CNU 5 (22.7%)
Most common scoreline: 2–1 (9)
Cortland (nationally ranked around #18, 13-3-2) is the clear consensus pick. The Red Dragons have deep tournament experience and earned an at-large bid after a strong season. Christopher Newport (11-2-2, also at-large) is solid but facing a higher-profile opponent at the Montclair State regional. The hive sees a tight, low-scoring affair with Cortland edging it.
SC Prediction: Cortland 1, Christopher Newport 0
Christopher Newport (11-2-2) and Cortland (13-3-2) meet as at-large selections in a neutral-site first-round game at Montclair State. The Captains, now independent after leaving the Coast-to-Coast Athletic Conference, return to the tournament for the second straight year under Justin Chezem and carry a strong NCAA pedigree with at least one win in each of their last seven appearances. Cortland, under Steve Axtell, is making its 28th all-time trip and sixth straight under the current staff; the Red Dragons advanced to the Sweet 16 last season and remain unbeaten in seven of their last eight games despite a penalty-kick loss to Plattsburgh in the SUNYAC final. Jordan Ott’s goalkeeping and Dylan Pederson’s attacking form give Cortland a clear edge in experience, while CNU’s 17-12-5 all-time NCAA record shows they know how to navigate early-round pressure. This is only the second meeting between the programs, with the Captains winning the only prior matchup in 2001. Expect a physical, possession-based game where set pieces and goalkeeper distribution could decide who advances.
UW-Eau Claire vs. Calvin
Hive: Calvin 15 (68.2%), Draw 4 (18.2%), UW-EC 3 (13.6%)
Most common scoreline: 2–1 (9)
Calvin (ranked ~#22, 15-2-2) is the favorite. The Knights have been productive offensively and earned an at-large bid after winning the MIAA regular-season title. UW-Eau Claire (10-3-7) brings a more mixed record. Consensus is a competitive 2-1 Calvin win at the Chicago regional.
SC Prediction: Calvin 2, UW-Eau Claire 0
Wisconsin-Eau Claire (10-3-7) travels to Chicago’s Stagg Field to face MIAA regular-season champion Calvin (15-2-2) in a first-ever meeting. The Blugolds arrive as WIAC tournament champions after a 1-0 overtime win over Platteville and a penalty-kick victory over Whitewater in the semifinals; their 10-3-7 record includes a high volume of draws that underscore defensive organization and late-game resilience. Calvin, coached by Ryan Souders, is making its 12th straight NCAA appearance and 17th in the last 19 seasons after falling 1-0 to Hope in the MIAA final despite a 6-0-1 conference mark. The Knights’ at-large bid reflects consistent strength of schedule and attacking output, while Eau Claire’s path through the WIAC tournament shows they can grind out results under pressure. Host Chicago (ranked as high as No. 6 nationally) awaits the winner, so both sides must balance aggression with the need to conserve energy. Look for Calvin’s structured possession against Eau Claire’s counter-attacking efficiency in a match that could hinge on a single set-piece or goalkeeper error.
Oneonta vs. Babson
Hive: Babson 10 (45.5%), Oneonta 9 (40.9%), Draw 3 (13.6%)
Most common scoreline: 2–1 (6)
The closest matchup of the group. Babson (10-2-6) holds a razor-thin edge over SUNY Oneonta (strong conference record around 13-2). This one is at the Tufts regional. The hive is nearly split, with a slight lean to Babson in a tight game.
SC Prediction: Oneonta 2, Babson 1
SUNY Oneonta (13-2-3) and Babson (10-2-6) square off at Tufts in a matchup of two teams that reached the NCAA field via different routes. Oneonta, coached by Iain Byrne (who recorded his 300th career win earlier this season), earned an at-large berth after a deep SUNYAC run that included a 4-1 second-round win over Potsdam before a 3-2 semifinal loss to Cortland; the Red Dragons feature a potent attack led by Iyare and Imari Harris and enter with strong shot volume and conversion rates. Babson claimed the NEWMAC regular-season title with a 5-0-3 conference record and a 2-0 win over Coast Guard, though they fell in a penalty-kick semifinal to the same opponent. The Beavers’ 10-2-6 mark reflects control in league play and a balanced attack that includes contributions from Christian Gardner and others. Playing at the defending national champion’s campus adds atmosphere, but both sides have recent experience against high-level competition. Oneonta’s recent scoring bursts and Babson’s defensive structure set up a contrast between vertical threat and midfield control.
Wheaton vs. Hobart
Hive: Wheaton 14 (63.6%), Hobart 6 (27.3%), Draw 2 (9.1%)
Most common scoreline: 1–2 (7) — note the scoreline implies Hobart winning in the most common prediction, even if the pick distribution leans Wheaton.
Wheaton gets the majority of picks, but the most common scoreline of 1-2 suggests some see Hobart (10-3-4) as capable of pulling the upset. Solid, competitive regional-level game.
SC Prediction: Wheaton (MA) 1, Hobart 1 (Wheaton advances on PKs)
Wheaton (MA) (11-2-6) and Hobart (10-3-4) meet at Middlebury’s South Street Field. The Lyons enter as NEWMAC champions after a 2-0 title-game win over Coast Guard and carry one of the stronger defensive profiles in the field (0.74 GAA, ranking near the top 30 nationally, with an .837 save percentage). Wheaton’s seven-game unbeaten streak and ability to win tight matches give them postseason momentum. Hobart, a Liberty League side that finished 3-3-3 in conference and lost a high-profile regular-season match to RPI, arrives with attacking talent that has shown the ability to break down organized defenses in stretches. This is a classic contrast: Wheaton’s structure and goalkeeping against Hobart’s capacity for transitional moments. With Middlebury hosting the pod, the neutral site levels the environment, and the match should reward the side that better manages late-game transitions and set-piece defending.
Colorado College vs. Washington and Lee
Hive: W&L 13 (59.1%), CC 5 (22.7%), Draw 4 (18.2%)
Most common scorelines: 2–0 and 2–1 (5 each)
Washington & Lee (ranked ~#23, 12-3-3) is the preferred pick over Colorado College (15-2-2). W&L has been a consistent program; the hive expects them to control the match, with clean-sheet or narrow-win scenarios most popular.
SC Prediction: Colorado College 2, Washington & Lee 1
Colorado College (15-2-2), the SCAC champions after a 1-0 final win over LeTourneau, faces at-large selection Washington and Lee (ranked as high as No. 17 in recent polls) at Rowan. The Tigers’ first SCAC title comes with an 8-0-1 conference record and a defense that limited high-volume attacks in key matches; their scoring has been distributed, with contributors such as Teddy Opler and Whit Hynes. W&L, making its 11th consecutive NCAA appearance and 12th overall, finished with a strong ODAC campaign and carries a high NPI ranking that earned the at-large bid. The Generals have shown the ability to win low-scoring games and control midfield tempo. Both programs bring recent tournament experience and disciplined defensive units, so the first-round matchup in Glassboro is likely to be decided by efficiency in the final third and the ability to convert limited chances. Expect a tactical, patient contest between two well-coached sides.
Vassar vs. Messiah
Hive: Messiah 18 (81.8%), Vassar 3 (13.6%), Draw 1 (4.5%)
Most common scoreline: 2–0 (6)
One of the more lopsided consensus games. Messiah (ranked ~#17, 16-2-2) is a clear favorite. Vassar just won the Liberty League title (including a 1-0 win over St. Lawrence), but the hive sees Messiah as the stronger side overall and expects a controlled victory.
SC Prediction: Messiah 2, Vassar 0
Liberty League champions Vassar (8-5-6) get a rematch with at-large Messiah (16-2-2) at Amherst. Vassar defeated St. Lawrence 1-0 in the conference final behind a Zapp Hotz goal and nine saves from Jacob Raphan (six shutouts on the season, .784 save percentage). Messiah, which beat Vassar 1-0 in a September meeting (Sam Phillips goal), lost the MAC Commonwealth final 1-0 to Neumann but still entered the tournament ranked near No. 14–19 with a deep attacking group that includes Owen Resch (14 goals), Kyle Spodnik, and others. Killian O’Reilly has started every match for the Falcons with a sub-0.70 GAA. The rematch dynamic adds narrative weight: Vassar’s recent form and Raphan’s shot-stopping versus Messiah’s season-long consistency and multi-threat attack. Amherst’s campus provides a high-level environment, and the match should test whether Vassar can replicate its defensive performance from the conference final against a more potent offensive side.
Plattsburgh vs. Denison
Hive: Denison 18 (81.8%), Draw 3 (13.6%), Plattsburgh 1 (4.5%)
Most common scoreline: 1–0 (8)
Heavy lean to Denison (ranked ~#19, 12-1-6). The hive expects a tight, low-scoring defensive battle with Denison finding the winner. Plattsburgh had a solid season but faces a ranked opponent.
SC Prediction: Denison 1, Plattsburgh State 0
SUNYAC champions Plattsburgh (11-3-4) face Denison in a first-round contest. Plattsburgh ended a 13-year title drought with a 0-0 draw and 3-2 PK win over Cortland; Matthew D’Ippolito earned tournament MVP honors with a pair of shutouts and key stops in the shootout, and the Cardinals return to the NCAA field for the first time since 2015 under Chris Taylor. Denison arrives as a strong NCAC side with a reputation for organized defending and the ability to score in bursts, as shown in earlier non-conference results. Plattsburgh’s path through the SUNYAC (including a 4-0 semifinal win over Buffalo State) demonstrates defensive solidity and set-piece efficiency. The matchup pits Plattsburgh’s recent championship experience and goalkeeping form against Denison’s broader season consistency. Expect a tight, low-event game in which one goal or a late transition could decide advancement.
Roger Williams vs. Johns Hopkins
Hive: JHU 17 (77.3%), Draw 4 (18.2%), RWU 1 (4.5%)
Most common scorelines: 2–1 and 2–0 (5 each)
Johns Hopkins is the strong consensus pick over Roger Williams (ranked ~#24, 14-1-5). RWU had an excellent record, but the hive trusts JHU’s pedigree in this one. Expect a professional, controlled performance from the Blue Jays.
SC Prediction: Roger Williams 1, Johns Hopkins 2
Roger Williams (14-1-5) and Johns Hopkins (13-4-2) meet at Williams in a first-ever encounter. The Hawks enter on a 17-match unbeaten streak and as back-to-back Conference of New England champions after a 1-0 double-overtime win over Western New England; their attack features balanced scoring from Dylan Robbins, Tyler Jastrab, Louis Hawkins, and others. Johns Hopkins claimed its 12th Centennial Conference title with a 1-0 win over Haverford (Rohan Aggarwal PK, John Ghanem five saves) and is making its 21st NCAA appearance (11th under Craig Appleby). The Blue Jays’ 13-4-2 record includes strong home form and contributions from Connor Wilkes, Aggarwal, and Brendan Listzwan. Playing at the No. 2-ranked host’s campus raises the stakes, but both sides arrive with conference championship momentum. This shapes up as a high-quality technical matchup between two well-coached, efficient teams.
Neumann vs. St. Lawrence
Hive: St. Lawrence 18 (81.8%), Neumann 3 (13.6%), Draw 1 (4.5%)
Most common scoreline: 2–1 (6)
St. Lawrence (ranked ~#12, 11-2-4) is a heavy favorite. The Saints have strong national standing. Neumann earned their bid by beating Messiah in the MAC Commonwealth final, so they arrive with momentum, but the hive still sees SLU as the clearer favorite in a game at Bowdoin.
SC Prediction: St. Lawrence 1, Neumann 0
Neumann (MAC Commonwealth champions after a 1-0 final win over Messiah) faces No. 7-ranked St. Lawrence (11-2-4) at Bowdoin. The Knights earned their fourth consecutive conference title and seventh overall automatic bid; their defensive structure produced multiple shutouts, including the title-game victory. St. Lawrence, coached by Mike Toshack, is making its 25th NCAA appearance and sixth under the current staff after winning the Liberty League regular-season title and reaching the conference final (1-0 loss to Vassar). The Saints’ high ranking reflects consistent results and a balanced roster capable of controlling possession. Neumann’s recent form against quality opposition and St. Lawrence’s national ranking create a clear contrast in pedigree. The match in Brunswick should reward the side that better manages midfield transitions and set-piece defending.
Salem State vs. Carnegie Mellon
Hive: CMU 17 (77.3%), Salem 4 (18.2%), Draw 1 (4.5%)
Most common scoreline: (not fully listed in the data you provided, but the pick distribution is clear)
Carnegie Mellon (ranked ~#25, 11-3-4) is the consensus pick. They had a solid UAA campaign (including a 0-0 draw with highly ranked Case Western). Salem State won the MASCAC tournament and has a strong record, but the hive favors the Tartans’ quality.
SC Prediction: Salem State 3, Carnegie Mellon 1
Salem State (18-1-1) enters as MASCAC champions after a 1-1 draw and 6-5 PK win over Bridgewater State, tying the program record for single-season wins and returning to the NCAA field for the 16th time. The Vikings have posted strong defensive numbers (including standout goalkeeping from Thomas Youden) and a high goal differential throughout the season. Carnegie Mellon arrives as a traditional UAA power with the structure and athleticism that typically make them dangerous in early rounds. Salem State’s championship form and volume of wins give them momentum, while Carnegie Mellon’s consistency against high-level conference competition provides the counterweight. Expect a physical, well-organized contest in which defensive discipline and efficiency on limited chances will determine who advances.
Quick Hive Summary
- Strong favorites (75%+): Cortland, Messiah, Denison, JHU, St. Lawrence, CMU
- Moderate favorites: Calvin, Wheaton, W&L
- Toss-up: Oneonta/Babson
The hive is generally backing the higher-ranked or more established programs, with most predicted scorelines in the 1-0 to 2-1 range — typical of tight DIII tournament soccer.